The recent release of data by the U.S. Department of Labor has sparked conversation regarding economic trends and monetary policies, particularly in light of the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) which reported an annual growth rate of 3%. This figure surpassed both the anticipated growth of 2.9% and the prior rate of 2.9%, indicating a potential shift in the inflation landscape. Additionally, the month-over-month increase of 0.5% marked the highest escalation since August 2023, exceeding expectations of 0.3% and a previous rate of 0.4%. This trend of rising prices has been consistent over the last seven months, prompting stakeholders to rethink their strategies.

The inflation rate serves as a vital indicator of economic health, and when coupled with previously released job data, unemployment rates, and labor force participation statistics, it suggests that the Federal Reserve may need to reevaluate its approach to interest rate decisions. Indeed, many market participants now anticipate that the Fed's easing path could be readjusted, with some traders even forecasting a shift from a September reduction to one in December.

Despite calls from President Biden for the Fed to lower interest rates, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently asserted that the Fed remains close but has not yet achieved its inflation targets. Thus, maintaining restrictive policy appears essential in the eyes of the Fed.

Current factors influencing the Fed's policy direction extend beyond anticipated tariff adjustments impacting monetary policy perceptions. President Biden and tech innovator Elon Musk have both been advocates for government reforms aimed at reshaping regulatory environments in the United States. These shifts contribute to a more intricate landscape for Fed policies, posing increased risks to the economy's capacity to endure restrictive monetary strategies.

It is evident that institutional reforms introduce a host of complexities into how the Federal Reserve may reassess its monetary policies. Since the subprime mortgage crisis, the U.S. has undergone substantial regulatory overhaul, with heightened government oversight across various sectors. This increased regulation has inevitably raised the marginal costs within the American economic structure, inhibiting the pace of technological innovation and development.

Data from the U.S. Treasury Department highlights a troubling trend: the deficit for the first four months of the 2025 fiscal year reached an unprecedented $840 billion, reflecting a staggering annual increase of 58%, surpassing even the peak period of the pandemic. A significant contributor to this deficit has been the surging expenditures in healthcare, social security, military spending, and interest on national debt.

Musk has suggested that a relaxation in regulatory measures could catalyze a 5% growth in the U.S. economy, leading to a dramatic reduction of the government budget deficit from $2 trillion to $1 trillion, while potentially curtailing inflation altogether.

If these outcomes materialize, they would evidently provide the Federal Reserve with ample leeway to maintain restrictive policy measures, as it would allow for a more accommodating environment in battling inflation. Nevertheless, the extent to which the Fed can sustain restrictive monetary policy will elongate the net interest differential between the U.S. and other nations, posing clear hazards for those countries attempting to manage economic cycles amid vulnerabilities.

As the interest differential between dollar assets and non-dollar assets remains persistently high, this may precipitate a tightening of global financial market liquidity, compelling investors to hedge against losses in non-dollar assets and driving them deeper into credit constriction.

Countries around the world must acknowledge these unfolding dynamics, taking proactive measures to mitigate risks effectively. For China, particularly, any responsive strategies to the Fed's delayed easing should be multifaceted, incorporating both short-term and long-term measures.

In the short term, risk mitigation strategies should focus on enhancing real-time risk sensitivity monitoring frameworks. This includes closely analyzing China’s financial markets and domestic assets, conducting stress tests across various scenarios—normal, extreme, and catastrophic—to assess risk-bearing capacities and probability distributions. Such measures will assist in the timely identification, warning, and management of risks to prevent mismatches.

Mid-term strategies should prioritize the establishment of structures and directional plans for proactive fiscal policies, increasing the accuracy and precision of fiscal strategies to maximize the government’s credit expansion effects. There’s an urgent need for strict adherence to policies that reinforce the notion that public welfare is the most crucial productivity driver. Fewer fiscal resources need to be utilized towards enhancing social safety nets and empowering the populace against uncertainties, which in turn, would invigorate final consumption within the markets and transform government deficit credits into broader market expansion.

Long-term risk reduction efforts should aim to deepen governmental reforms grounded in a belief that freedom is vital for development. By simplifying bureaucratic processes and minimizing social costs, the objective should be to provide greater operational flexibility for market entities. Moreover, enhancing governmental efficacy and ensuring that its support translates into market competitiveness will be central to these reforms. Establishing a framework that promotes international competitiveness while ensuring adequate, cost-effective institutional support for Chinese enterprises will be critical.

As the saying goes, “A bird only thinks of spreading its wings to fly thousands of miles.” The delay in interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve is poised to unveil a new arena in global competition, where countries will increasingly resort to institutional reforms that minimize marginal social costs and elevate market freedoms. Effective governance is becoming an essential parameter for enhancing productivity and will shape the competitive landscape in the age of AI.